India and China Changes in the structure of population

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Demographic dividends are decreasing in China as India is poised to increase its growth rate by embracing the fastest-growing economy.

The world experiences a major change in the demographics this week: India takes over China as the world's largest nation as population estimates from the population review suggest. But the policymakers aren't worried about the overpopulation. It's actually declining population levels that worry them. What do these changes in the demographics translate into for the two top populous countries on earth?

• China's demographic dividend vanished, while India continues to expand.
• The India's population structure. India is older than China
• A quarter of India's current population is younger than 30 years old while only 35 percent of Chinese are within the same category.
• In China the population that is aging (60 and over) is nearly twice the population of India
• The aging China might see a slower growth in the economy.
• China recorded negative growth at the beginning of more than six decades

After limiting the one-child rule, Chinese leaders are now insisting on families having three children as the country's declining population. According to the United Nations, however, estimates the possibility that India continues to increase its population until 2050, while China's population will remain in decline. India as per experts is just reaching the fertility level that would be considered replacement. China however, on the contrary hand, was at the level of replacement about two decades ago.

IN NUMBERS

India has taken over China as the most populous nation in the world. According to the research firm Macrotrends the most recent figure in India has been 1.428 billion.

China's population stood at 1.41 billion at 2022's end according to the latest data published from the National Bureau of Statistics of China revealed. China saw declining growth, for the very first time for 61 years, and slowed by 8,50,000 by 2022. Population growth that is negative is an result of the country's lower fertility.

POPULATION PYRAMID

Not just is the Chinese population decrease as it ages, but the demographics will also be different from India. In the present, one out of 10 Indians is over sixty years of age. In China the ratio is averaging every sixth person. This gap is expected to grow over the coming seven years.

By 2030, more 25% part of Chinese people will have reached 60 years old or older, whereas India will have less than 12 percent within that age range. China has long been worried about the impact of aging citizens on the country's economy and its society.

What does China's declining population mean for the future of China

The declining number of working age people could result in a larger dependent population and an increase in the number of workers. It could make it difficult for companies to find workers and could slow growth in the economy.

As per the China's National Bureau of Statistics, on the 17th of January the growth in GDP of China this year was just three percent, and the population declined by 8,50,000 in comparison to the previous year. China was unable to meet the target of 5.5 per cent , and it fell significantly from 8.4 percent in 2021.

Experts believe that China's industry could cut production because of labour shortages. This could lead to a rise in global commodity pricesand, the result is high prices and rising prices in both the US as well as the European Union.

The aging population may also affect the nation's social welfare system as more retirees will become and require government assistance. This could mean increased taxes or lower benefits for retired people.

What the rising Indian population could mean for the future of India

The Indian population is undergoing a transition, result in a greater proportion of working-age people. The alteration in the age profile that is affecting the Indian population may positively affect the growth of India's economy. Demographic dividends are a result of acceleration in economic growth because of the age structure changing.

The demographic composition that is present in India as well as China is more youthful than that of developed nations. Around 7 percent of the population in India is 65 or above, and more than 12 percent in China and over 16 percent in Japan. The dependency ratio was relatively low in India in comparison with China as well as Japan.

Experts suggest that experts say that the Indian economy is going through an era of demographic dividends, in which the proportion of the population working is at its largest. However, with the declining overall fertility, the percentage of people who are elderly has already begun to increase (from 8.2 percent to 10.2 percent in the period of 2011-12 and in 2018-19).

India's population grew very quickly after the declaration of independence. From 1947 until 1997, India's population increased from 35 crores up to one billion. But, the government launched various programs in the 80s to curb the growth of population. This led to a decline in the rate of fertility started to decline.

But, the dividend of demographics won't last forever in fact, India could face similar challenges as it grows in population. Experts believe that this dividend may disappear after 2040. India is expected to become an aging society, too.

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